Working on interest rate overlays on SPX & looking back at H&S I plotted out for 2008 crash & most recent 2022 downturn. Looking eerily similar to one another with this moment in time being the retracement before the much more significant fall should this era’s downturn mirror 2008 downturn. With tensions rising between China & the US over Taiwan after recent Pelosi visit, I wonder if this could mark the beginning of a considerable downtrend in the markets. I am still overwhelmed by information &, in trying to understand, anticipate & navigate current events and economics, feel like a dinghy in a hurricane trying to understand, anticipate & navigate wind and waves, but still, the parallels between these too eras—along with what seems to be generally bearish sentiment from the likes of Stanley Druckenmiller, Ray Dalio, Michael Burry, & others (though perhaps I’m being fed perspectives closer to my own because of the bias of my media algorithms, also to consider is the general dominance that fearful perspectives take on any news outlet, fear garnering more attention)—seem uncanny on the chart. See below:
